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Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued

GuruFocus.com
·4 min read

- By GF Value

The stock of Cavco Industries (NAS:CVCO, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $232.41 per share and the market cap of $2.1 billion, Cavco Industries stock shows every sign of being modestly overvalued. GF Value for Cavco Industries is shown in the chart below.


Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued
Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued

Because Cavco Industries is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which averaged 10.5% over the past five years.

Link: These companies may deliever higher future returns at reduced risk.

Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company's financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company's financial strength. Cavco Industries has a cash-to-debt ratio of 11.15, which ranks better than 88% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Cavco Industries's financial strength as 8 out of 10, suggesting strong balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Cavco Industries over the past years:

Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued
Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued

Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. Cavco Industries has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $1.1 billion and earnings of $6.83 a share. Its operating margin is 7.23%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. Overall, the profitability of Cavco Industries is ranked 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Cavco Industries over the past years:

Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued
Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued

Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Cavco Industries is 10.5%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 15.8%, which ranks better than 67% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry.

Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Cavco Industries's return on invested capital is 14.14, and its cost of capital is 8.84. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Cavco Industries is shown below:

Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued
Cavco Industries Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued

To conclude, the stock of Cavco Industries (NAS:CVCO, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being modestly overvalued. The company's financial condition is strong and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks better than 67% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. To learn more about Cavco Industries stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.