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Can Cedar Woods Properties Limited's (ASX:CWP) Weak Financials Pull The Plug On The Stock's Current Momentum On Its Share Price?

·4 min read

Cedar Woods Properties' (ASX:CWP) stock is up by a considerable 21% over the past three months. We, however wanted to have a closer look at its key financial indicators as the markets usually pay for long-term fundamentals, and in this case, they don't look very promising. In this article, we decided to focus on Cedar Woods Properties' ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Cedar Woods Properties

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cedar Woods Properties is:

8.9% = AU$37m ÷ AU$421m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.09 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Cedar Woods Properties' Earnings Growth And 8.9% ROE

On the face of it, Cedar Woods Properties' ROE is not much to talk about. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 8.6%. But Cedar Woods Properties saw a five year net income decline of 13% over the past five years. Bear in mind, the company does have a slightly low ROE. Therefore, the decline in earnings could also be the result of this.

That being said, we compared Cedar Woods Properties' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 1.0% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is Cedar Woods Properties fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Cedar Woods Properties Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Cedar Woods Properties' declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 65% (or a retention ratio of 35%). With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. You can see the 2 risks we have identified for Cedar Woods Properties by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

In addition, Cedar Woods Properties has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 67% of its profits over the next three years. As a result, Cedar Woods Properties' ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 8.8% for future ROE.

Conclusion

On the whole, Cedar Woods Properties' performance is quite a big let-down. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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