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Cellectis S.A. (EPA:ALCLS) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

Simply Wall St
·3 min read

Cellectis S.A. (EPA:ALCLS) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$53m exceeding analyst forecasts by 248%, and statutory losses of US$2.43 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Cellectis

ENXTPA:ALCLS Past and Future Earnings May 8th 2020
ENXTPA:ALCLS Past and Future Earnings May 8th 2020

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from nine analysts covering Cellectis is for revenues of US$37.1m in 2020, implying a concerning 48% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.92 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$39.5m and losses of US$2.86 per share in 2020. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on Cellectis after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a per-share loss expectations.

The consensus price target fell 13% to €23.00, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Cellectis at €25.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €20.50. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 14% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for a 48% decline in revenue next year. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the wider industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 34% next year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to decline, unfortunately Cellectis is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Cellectis' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Cellectis going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Cellectis is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.