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CF (CF) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

Zacks Equity Research
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Shares of CF Industries Holdings (CF) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 4.4% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $55.47 in the previous session. CF Industries Holdings has gained 26.4% since the start of the year compared to the -4.6% move for the Zacks Basic Materials sector and the 10.6% return for the Zacks Fertilizers industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on August 1, 2018, CF reported EPS of $0.63 versus consensus estimate of $0.42 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 8.45%.

For the current fiscal year, CF is expected to post earnings of $1.43 per share on $4.48 billion in revenues. This represents a 672% change in EPS on an 8.52% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $1.81 per share on $4.61 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 26.62% and 2.78%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Though CF has recently hit a 52-week high, what is next for CF? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

CF has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 37.7X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 15.2X versus its peer group's average of 14.8X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 6.28. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, CF currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if CF passes the test. Thus, it seems as though CF shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.

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