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Charts hinting at a big move for gold

Jeff Macke

If gold and gold miners were celebrities it would be time for them to look for a new PR team. Despite outperforming stocks in 2014 the group still carries the taint of the bubble that burst in 2012. With the popular SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) showing strong volume and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) moving higher on Tuesday despite a brutal market for stocks it may be time for some traders to reconsider the barbaric metal as an alternative to suddenly suspect equities.

Jonathan Krinsky, the chief technician of MKM Partners says gold and the miners are just getting going to the upside despite a slight pullback in the early stages of July.

“A couple weeks ago we saw a pretty big breakout on the GLD. It was on the heaviest volume we’ve seen in about a year. Most of those gains have held so that tells you there are active buyers. As long as we consolidate around this range I think gold is headed higher.”

Beyond the action in the GLD Krinsky is encouraged by the price action in silver and the aforementioned miners. The miners are typically a higher beta version of gold itself so when gold is headed lower the miners get smoked but when the metal rallies the companies in the business of production see huge increases. From that perspective it’s all systems go with the miners having doubled the gains of the GLD in 2014.

As a technician Krinsky takes a cold view of the metal. As long as the charts are on his side he’ll stay with the trade but if and when momentum shifts he’ll be gone. He says the breakout happened near $1,250 an ounce. As long as that level, which works out to about $120 on the GLD holds he’s looking for a move to $1,400 for starters.

If past is prelude the skepticism surrounding gold is bullish. At the very least it’s the mirror image of September 2011 when gold was $1,900 and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was hanging out closer to 1,000 than just under 2,000 where it is today.

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