Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited (HKG:3996) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is China Energy Engineering's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2019, China Energy Engineering had CN¥84.2b of debt, up from CN¥76.1b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥44.9b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥39.3b.
How Healthy Is China Energy Engineering's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that China Energy Engineering had liabilities of CN¥214.6b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥72.3b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥44.9b in cash and CN¥110.3b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥131.7b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥22.5b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt After all, China Energy Engineering would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
China Energy Engineering's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.2 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Given the debt load, it's hardly ideal that China Energy Engineering's EBIT was pretty flat over the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if China Energy Engineering can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, China Energy Engineering saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
On the face of it, China Energy Engineering's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think China Energy Engineering has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. Another positive for shareholders is that it pays dividends. So if you like receiving those dividend payments, check China Energy Engineering's dividend history, without delay!
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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