The worst of the Chinese economic slowdown is likely still ahead because of the nation's debt, according to a senior Morgan Stanley investment strategist.
"China, to try and sustain its growth rate in the post-financial-crisis era, has engaged in the largest credit binge of any emerging market in history," said Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management,
Sharma, speaking Tuesday at the Global Private Equity Conference in Washington, D.C., predicted that the credit boom would cause problems.
Whenever a country increases its debt to gross domestic product sharply over five years, in the next five years there's a 70 percent chance of a financial crisis and 100 percent chance of a major economic slowdown, according to Morgan Stanley research.
The Chinese government this week cut interest rates for the third time in six months because of projected 7 percent GDP growth this year, the lowest level in more than two decades.
Sharma said the slow growth he forecast would be around 4 percent or 5 percent over the next five years, about half the rate of what it used to be. (Tweet this)
"If China follows this template, it really is payback time," he said.
Another speaker at the conference, former U.S. Gen. Wesley Clark, took a less grim view.
"I'm not as worried about the buildup of debt in China as other countries," the founder of Wesley Clark & Associates said.
He cited two reasons. The renminbi is not fully convertible to other currencies, and the Chinese economy still has elements of central control.
"Every year people at these business conferences say the demise of the Chinese economy is coming very rapidly," Clark added. "But it hasn't happened. And President Xi is not going to let it happen if he can avoid it."
Another China bull, Robert Petty, managing partner and co-founder of Clearwater Capital Partners, said China can forestall its debt problems.
"We believe the balance sheet of China absolutely has the capacity to do two things: term it out and kick the can down the road," Petty said.
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