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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Dips More Than Broader Markets: What You Should Know

Zacks Equity Research

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) closed the most recent trading day at $826.79, moving -0.63% from the previous trading session. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.04%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.05%.

Prior to today's trading, shares of the Mexican food chain had gained 8.51% over the past month. This has outpaced the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 2.76% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.48% in that time.

Wall Street will be looking for positivity from CMG as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be February 4, 2020. The company is expected to report EPS of $2.67, up 55.23% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $1.40 billion, up 13.9% from the year-ago period.

CMG's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $13.87 per share and revenue of $5.54 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +53.09% and +13.89%, respectively.

It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for CMG. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.

Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.94% higher within the past month. CMG is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).

Looking at its valuation, CMG is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 59.99. This represents a premium compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 23.76.

We can also see that CMG currently has a PEG ratio of 3.04. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. The Retail - Restaurants was holding an average PEG ratio of 2.24 at yesterday's closing price.

The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 66, putting it in the top 26% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.


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