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Cisco to the Woodshed, NetEase to the Moon After Earnings

Richard Suttmeier

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- I have been previewing earnings reports for many companies this earnings season. Then a few days later, I follow up on how these stocks performed in reaction to earnings beats and misses, with an eye on revenue and guidance. The purpose of this coverage is to help buy-and-trade investors capture some of the stock specific volatility both before a company reports earnings, and in reaction to these reports.

On Aug. 12 I wrote Cisco and Buy-Rated Retailers Headline Earnings and four of the six companies previewed beat earnings per share estimates. Even so, three traded lower after earnings, two moved sideways and one became a momentum stock.

This morning the stock market remains under a ValuEngine valuation warning with 75.1% of all stock overvalued 42.2% by 20% or more, 15 of 16 sectors overvalued, 13 by double-digit percentages, seven by more than 20%.

The technicals for the major equity averages are a mixed bag. The weekly chart profiles are negative for Dow Industrials, the S&P 500 and Dow Transports, but the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 still have overbought weekly charts.

Tech bellwether Cisco Systems ($24.07 vs. $26.05 on Aug. 9) reported a beat of 2 cents a share in afterhours trading on Aug. 14 earning 49 cents. The stock was sent to the woodshed the next morning and continued to move sideways to down to a low of $24.05 yesterday. Poor guidance and a 5% cut in the workforce, or 4,000 employees, was the catalyst for the stock price decline. Cisco continues to have a hold rating according to www.ValuEngine.com with the stock declining below my quarterly value level, now a pivot at $24.44. My annual value level is $22.76 with this week's risky level at $25.95.

Mall department store Dillard's ($78.52 vs. $80.14 on Aug. 9) beat EPS estimates by 14 cents earning 79 cents a share in afterhours trading on Aug. 14. The stock tested my monthly value level at $78.18 on Aug. 14 pre-earnings announcement. Last Thursday the stock popped to $86.90 above my quarterly risky level, now a pivot at $84.22. Buy-and-trade investors could have bought the buy rated stock at $78.18 and sold it the next morning at $84.22 for a gain of 7.7%.

Agricultural equipment maker Deere ($82.51 vs. $81.74 on Aug. 9) beat EPS estimates by 40 cents a share premarket on Aug. 14. Since then the stock has traded back and forth around its 50-day SMA at $83.11 staying below its 200-day at $86.70. The trading range was from a low of $81.00 last Thusday to a high of $85.07 on Monday. The hold rated stock stayed between my quarterly value level at $77.79 and my monthly risky level at $88.86 with a pivot this week at $83.50.

Department store Macy's ($44.93 vs. $48.52 on Aug. 9) joined the earnings parade with an EPS miss of 6 cents a share earning 72 cents premarket on Aug. 14. The buy rated stock fell from its 50-day SMA at $48.23 on Aug. 13 to a low of $44.56 yesterday still above the 200-day SMA at $43.40 with my semiannual pivot at $46.21.

The Internet technology company NetEase ($72.45 vs. $60.40 on Aug. 9) beat EPS estimates by 11 cents a share earning $1.37 in afterhours trading on Aug. 14. The stock opened the next morning above my quarterly pivot at $61.52, which began a moon-shot to a high of $74.69 on Aug. 20. This strength caused the stock to be to become a momentum trade. Buy-and-trade investors should thus consider booking profits, as the stock was downgraded to hold from buy.

Paint and coatings supplier Valspar ($63.30 vs. $69.92 on Aug. 9) missed EPS estimates by 4 cents earning $1.07 a share on Aug. 13. The hold rated stock held its 200-day SMA at $64.54 on Aug. 13 then failed at its 50-day SMA at $67.46 on Aug. 14. Since then the stock has slipped to a low of $62.12 on Tuesday. My semiannual pivot is $63.88 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $68.80 and $70.84.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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