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40 Cities That Could Be Poised For a Housing Crisis

Andrew Lisa
·9 min read

The lessons of the 2008 housing crisis are a living memory, and the effects of the recession of that era still are being felt. Although today?s housing market is largely hot, experts are bracing for a wave of evictions triggered by pandemic-related disruptions. That, they fear, could be the catalyst for a different kind of housing crisis that could rival even the dreariest days of the Great Recession ? all with COVID-19 still far from contained.

Some American cities are much more vulnerable to a housing downturn than others, according to a new study from GOBankingRates.

Using data from sources that include the U.S. Census Bureau, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the 2019 American Community Survey and RealtyTrac, GOBankingRates identified the 40 cities most at risk for experiencing a widespread housing crisis. The study examined factors such as mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures, and homeowner and rental vacancy rates.

All 40 are among the 200 largest cities in the country, but they aren’t spread out equally across the nation. States such as Texas, for example, are disproportionately represented with seven cities on the list. California, on the other hand, doesn?t have a single entry despite a population of nearly 40 million and some of the most expensive housing markets in America.

Last updated: Oct. 26, 2020

Hartford, Connecticut

  • Total housing units: 57,267

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,758 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.7%

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

  • Total housing units: 158,561

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,438 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.5%

Hampton, Virginia

  • Total housing units: 60,130

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,598 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.3%

Clearwater, Florida

  • Total housing units: 60,504

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,321 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%

Corpus Christi, Texas

  • Total housing units: 134,604

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,732 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.4%

Newark, New Jersey

  • Total housing units: 113,623

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.1%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,226 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.6%

San Antonio, Texas

  • Total housing units: 561,467

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,142 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%

Killeen, Texas

  • Total housing units: 64,280

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,414 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 4.3%

Louisville, Kentucky

  • Total housing units: 282,781

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,666 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%

Jacksonville, Florida

  • Total housing units: 396,542

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,082 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.9%

Winston-Salem, North Carolina

  • Total housing units: 108,880

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,662 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.6%

Miami, Florida

  • Total housing units: 221,040

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,678 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.9%

Atlanta, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 253,597

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,425 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.7%

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

  • Total housing units: 62,321

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.0%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,704 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%

Topeka, Kansas

  • Total housing units: 60,013

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,833 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.8%

Memphis, Tennessee

  • Total housing units: 301,473

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,485 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%

Amarillo, Texas

  • Total housing units: 85,889

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.5%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,394 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.4%

Birmingham, Alabama

  • Total housing units: 113,421

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,149 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.6%

Norfolk, Virginia

  • Total housing units: 98,476

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,997 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.9%

Springfield, Massachusetts

  • Total housing units: 60,454

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 7,336 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.8%

Tulsa, Oklahoma

  • Total housing units: 187,906

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,916 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.0%

Orlando, Florida

  • Total housing units: 138,456

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.1%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,481 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 6.0%

El Paso, Texas

  • Total housing units: 250,077

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,424 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.4%

Syracuse, New York

  • Total housing units: 71,806

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 9,575 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 5.2%

Miami Beach, Florida

  • Total housing units: 65,746

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,175 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 8.7%

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

  • Total housing units: 691,653

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,675 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.1%

Little Rock, Arkansas

  • Total housing units: 97,530

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,141 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.1%

Brownsville, Texas

  • Total housing units: 59,943

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 5.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 20,075 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%

Lafayette, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 59,431

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,467 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.4%

Mobile, Alabama

  • Total housing units: 92,545

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,799 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.8%

New Orleans, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 192,236

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.4%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,173 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%

Augusta, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 87,800

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,879 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.3%

Baltimore, Maryland

  • Total housing units: 293,877

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,163 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.2%

Columbus, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 85,251

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.4%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,004 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%

Shreveport, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 91,088

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,156 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.1%

Fayetteville, North Carolina

  • Total housing units: 94,480

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.0

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.7%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,020 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.9%

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 104,145

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.5%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.7%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,703 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.4%

Jackson, Mississippi

  • Total housing units: 75,146

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,465 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.5%

Macon, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 70,014

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,260 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%

Laredo, Texas

  • Total housing units: 80,365

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 8.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,322 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.9%

More From GOBankingRates

Methodology: To find the 40 cities that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at the 200 largest cities in terms of total housing units across the following factors: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2019 American Community Survey; and (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2019 American Community Survey. These four factors then were scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, and factor (4) was weighted 0.5x. The 100 cities most poised for a housing crisis were moved onto the next round of scoring.

These 100 cities then were re-ranked and scored on the four factors above as well as (5) foreclosure rate as sourced from RealtyTrac. These five factors were scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. For this second round of scoring, factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, factor (4) was weighted 0.5x, and factor (5) was weighted 1.5x.

All data were collected on and are up to date as of Oct. 8, 2020.

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 40 Cities That Could Be Poised For a Housing Crisis