We're just beginning to settle into the new year and already talk of the 2016 presidential elections is all encompassing. 2016 will be exciting, for the first time in two election cycles Democrats will have to nominate a new candidate; Republicans won't be facing an incumbent this time around.
Nate Silver, author of The Signal and the Noise and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight is 78% sure Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party candidate, despite the fact that she has yet to even announce she's running. "She’s as sure as any non-incumbents ever been," he says. He puts Senator Elizabeth Warren in at 7% odds and Vice President Joe Biden in at 4%.
Top White House official and campaign veteran Mandy Grunwald, left the White House this week to work for Ready for Hillary Super PAC further fueling rumors that Clinton is joining the race.
Potential Republican candidates find a much more crowded pool with a large number of Senators, Governors and Congressmen already vying for the top spot. While the odds are ever changing, Silver puts Florida Governor Jeb Bush in a tie for front-runner with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. He believes they each have a 25% chance of winning the nomination.
Scott Walker emerged last weekend from the Iowa caucus poll with a sixteen-point lead and as the first Republican darling child of the election season. Walker is one of the few candidates that is able to bridge the Tea Party and mainstream, establishment factions of the Republican Party says Silver. “He’s a guy Republicans respect a lot.”
Silver puts New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's chance of winning at just 5%. "I think Chris Christies chances are vastly overrated. In part because he has a lot of issues where he deviates from the Republican base and in part because he’s not a guy who’s seen as a team player." says Silver. Christie's New Jersey administration has been tainted in recent controversy. First Christie received heat over lane closings near the George Washington Bridge and is now under Federal investigation for firing an employee who objected to Christie dismissing indictments against his political allies.
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