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Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates, Stock Rises

The Coca-Cola Company KO has reported better-than-expected top and bottom-line results for third-quarter 2022. The company’s results have benefited from the continued momentum from the first half of 2022. Driven by the strong results, the company has raised its growth expectations for organic revenues and comparable earnings per share for 2022.

Comparable earnings of 69 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate of 64 cents and rose 7% from the year-ago period. However, unfavorable currency translations hurt earnings by 11 percentage points. Comparable currency-neutral earnings per share rose 18%.

Revenues of $11,063 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10,600 million and improved 10% year over year. Revenues also beat our estimate of $10,557.8 million. Organic revenues rose 16% from the prior-year quarter. Coca-Cola’s top line benefited from strong revenue growth across its operating segments, aided by an improved price/mix and increased concentrate sales.

In the reported quarter, Coca-Cola gained a global value share in total non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. The company benefited from underlying share gains in both at-home and away-from-home channels.

Coca-Cola’s shares jumped 2.3% in the pre-market trading session, owing to the better-than-expected third-quarter 2022 results. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock has gained 5.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 1.2%.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Volume and Pricing

In the reported quarter, concentrate sales advanced 4% year over year, while the price/mix rose 12%. The price/mix benefited from pricing actions in the marketplace across all operating segments, coupled with a favorable channel and package mix, owing to the lapping of last year’s pandemic-led disruptions. Price/mix also gained from a positive segment mix.

Coca-Cola’s total unit case volume grew 4% in the third quarter, backed by strength across all operating segments, ongoing investments in the marketplace and strength in the away-from-home channel. Growth was mainly led by improved trends in the developed markets, which recorded mid-single digits growth. Meanwhile, the developing and emerging markets rose in the low-single digits. Growth in developed markets was driven by Mexico, Western Europe and the United States. The developing and emerging markets benefited from growth in India, China and Brazil.

Coming to the category cluster performance, volume benefited in the reported quarter from growth in trademark Coca-Cola; sparkling flavors; the nutrition, juice, dairy and plant-based beverages; and hydration, sports, coffee and tea categories.

Sparkling soft drinks’ unit case volume improved 3% year over year, driven by robust gains across all geographic operating segments, led by India, Mexico and China. Trademark Coca-Cola volumes were up 3% year over year on solid gains in all regions. The sparkling flavors category improved 3% on growth in the Asia Pacific and Latin America. The volume for Coca-Cola Zero Sugar rose 11% on double-digit growth across developed markets, and high-single-digit growth across developing and emerging markets.

Volume for nutrition, juice, dairy and plant-based beverages was flat. The category primarily gained from fairlife in the United States, Minute Maid Pulpy in China and Maaza in India, offset by declines in local brands in Eastern Europe.

The hydration, sports, coffee and tea category grew 5% in the third quarter. Coca-Cola witnessed 6% growth in hydration on improvements across the Asia Pacific and Latin America. Sports drinks rose 6% due to solid performances by Aquarius, BODYARMOR and Powerade. Tea volume was flat, as gains in Brazil and Mexico were offset by a decline due to the suspension of business in Russia. The coffee business witnessed 5% growth on the cycling impacts of the closure of Costa retail outlets in the U.K. in the prior year and the expansion of Costa coffee across markets.

CocaCola Company The Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

CocaCola Company The Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
CocaCola Company The Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

CocaCola Company The price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | CocaCola Company The Quote

Segmental Details

Revenues rose 4% for EMEA, 12% for Latin America, 21% for North America, 4% for the Asia Pacific and 7% for Bottling Investments, while the same declined 10% for Global Ventures.

Organic revenues improved 20% in EMEA, 18% in Latin America, 14% in North America, 14% in the Asia Pacific, 5% in Global Ventures and 19% in Bottling Investments.

Margins

In dollar terms, the operating income increased 7% year over year to $3,088 million, including a 10-point impact of currency headwinds. Comparable operating income rose 8.1% year over year. Comparable currency-neutral operating income advanced 18% on strong organic revenue growth across all segments, offset by higher operating costs and marketing investments.

The operating margin of 27.9% in the third quarter contracted 100 basis points (bps) from 28.9% in the prior-year quarter. The comparable operating margin contracted 50 bps to 29.5%, driven by increased operating costs, higher marketing investments, the impact of the BODYARMOR acquisition and currency headwinds, which more than offset growth in the top line.

Guidance

Coca-Cola, on Mar 8, 2022, suspended its business in Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine. As a result, it expects a 1% impact on unit case volume, along with a 1% impact on revenues and operating income (earlier 1-2% impact). Adjusted earnings are likely to be affected by 3 cents.

Management has also raised its organic revenue forecast for 2022. It anticipates organic revenue growth of 14-15% compared with 12-13% growth mentioned earlier. Comparable revenues are expected to be impacted by a 7% currency headwind compared with a 6% headwind stated earlier. The guidance includes a 2% positive impact from acquisition and divestiture.

Management expects an impact of a high-single-digit percentage from commodity price inflation on comparable cost of goods sold. The company anticipates an underlying effective tax rate of 19% compared with 19.5% mentioned earlier.

Comparable currency-neutral earnings per share are estimated to increase 15-16% compared with 14-15% growth mentioned earlier. The company anticipates comparable earnings per share growth of 6-7% compared with 5-6% growth mentioned earlier. Its earnings per share view includes a headwind of 9% from currency and 1% from acquisitions and divestitures.

For fourth-quarter 2022, comparable revenues are expected to include an 8% currency headwind and a 1% positive impact from acquisitions. Comparable earnings per share are estimated to include a currency headwind of 9%.

Management envisions an adjusted free cash flow of $10.5 billion for 2022, including $12 billion in cash flow from operations. Capital expenditure is likely to be $1.5 billion.

The company has also provided its initial view for 2023. It remains optimistic about the top-line momentum. However, KO expects global inflation to impact expenses across the board in 2023. It expects commodity prices to continue to be volatile. The company anticipates an underlying effective tax rate of 19.5% for 2023.

For 2023, comparable revenues are expected to include a 5-6% currency headwind. Comparable earnings per share are estimated to include a currency headwind of 7-8%.

Stocks to Consider

We highlighted some better-ranked stocks from the broader Consumer Staples space, namely Constellation Brands STZ, Dutch Bros BROS and Limoneira Co LMNR.

Constellation Brands currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and an expected long-term earnings growth rate of 11.1%. STZ has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.5%, on average. The company has gained 5.6% in the past year.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Constellation Brands’ current financial-year sales suggests growth of 3.5% from the year-ago reported numbers, whereas the same for earnings suggests a decline of 5.1%. The consensus mark for STZ’s earnings per share has moved down 5.7% in the past 30 days.

Dutch Bros currently has a Zacks Rank of 2. BROS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 53%, on average. It has a long-term earnings growth rate of 32%. The company has declined 48.6% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dutch Bros’ current financial-year sales suggests growth of 51.2% from the prior-year reported number, whereas the same for earnings suggests a decline of 73.9%. The consensus mark for BROS’ earnings per share has moved down 25% in the past 30 days.

Limoneira currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. LMNR has a trailing two-quarter earnings surprise of 13.3%, on average. It has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15%. The company has declined 20.4% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Limoneira’s current financial-year loss per share suggests growth of 67.9% from a loss per share of 28 cents reported in the year-ago quarter, whereas the same for sales suggests a decline of 1.6%. The consensus mark for LMNR’s loss per share estimate has narrowed by 2 cents in the past 30 days.


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