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Last week, you might have seen that Coeur Mining, Inc. (NYSE:CDE) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.1% to US$8.73 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.11, some 44% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$785m. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Coeur Mining from three analysts is for revenues of US$934.8m in 2021 which, if met, would be a decent 19% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 548% to US$0.69. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$976.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.69 in 2021. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.
The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of US$10.75, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker sales expectations next year to have a material impact on Coeur Mining's market value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Coeur Mining, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Coeur Mining's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 19% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.3%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Coeur Mining to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Coeur Mining going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Coeur Mining that you need to take into consideration.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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