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Columbia Sportswear Company Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Simply Wall St
·4 mins read

Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ:COLM) shares fell 7.7% to US$81.29 in the week since its latest full-year results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$3.0b and statutory earnings per share of US$4.83 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Columbia Sportswear is executing in line with expectations. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts' latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Columbia Sportswear

NasdaqGS:COLM Past and Future Earnings, March 2nd 2020
NasdaqGS:COLM Past and Future Earnings, March 2nd 2020

Following the latest results, Columbia Sportswear's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$3.20b in 2020. This would be a satisfactory 5.0% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 2.3% to US$4.76 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.81 in 2020. So it's pretty clear that, although analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$102, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Columbia Sportswear analyst has a price target of US$115 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$78.00. This shows there is still quite a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Zooming out to look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up both against past performance, and against industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that analysts expect Columbia Sportswear's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 5.0%, compared to a historical growth rate of 6.7% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the market, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.2% next year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, analysts still expect the wider market to grow faster than Columbia Sportswear.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Columbia Sportswear's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Columbia Sportswear going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Columbia Sportswear Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.