Have you been paying attention to shares of Commercial Metals (CMC)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 2.9% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $34.02 in the previous session. Commercial Metals has gained 65.1% since the start of the year compared to the 26.1% move for the Zacks Basic Materials sector and the 52.6% return for the Zacks Steel - Producers industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on March 18, 2021, Commercial Metals reported EPS of $0.66 versus consensus estimate of $0.61 while it missed the consensus revenue estimate by 3.55%.
For the current fiscal year, Commercial Metals is expected to post earnings of $2.67 per share on $6.17 billion in revenues. This represents a 1.14% change in EPS on a 12.74% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $2.39 per share on $6.17 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of -10.49% and -0.08%, respectively.
Commercial Metals may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Commercial Metals has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are C and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 12.7X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 8.9X versus its peer group's average of 13.1X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 3.72. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Commercial Metals currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Commercial Metals fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though Commercial Metals shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.
How Does Commercial Metals Stack Up to the Competition?
Shares of Commercial Metals have been rising, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? Some of its industry peers are also solid potential picks, including ArcelorMittal (MT), Olympic Steel (ZEUS), and POSCO (PKX), all of which currently have a Zacks Rank of at least #2 and a VGM Score of at least B, making them well-rounded choices.
The Zacks Industry Rank is in the top 3% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for Commercial Metals, even beyond its own solid fundamental situation.
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