It's nice to see the Concert Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:CNCE) share price up 20% in a week. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. Truth be told the share price declined 47% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
We don't think Concert Pharmaceuticals's revenue of US$1,077,000 is enough to establish significant demand. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Concert Pharmaceuticals has the funding to invent a new product before too long.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There was already a significant chance that they would need more money for business development, and indeed they recently put themselves at the mercy of capital markets and raised equity. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt.
Concert Pharmaceuticals had cash in excess of all liabilities of when it last reported. That's not too bad but management decided to raise capital in any case to shore up the balance sheet since the company is not yet breaking even. With the share price down 19% per year, over 3 years , it seems likely that the additional cash is not out-weighing other issues on investors' minds. The image below shows how Concert Pharmaceuticals's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.
In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Concert Pharmaceuticals shareholders are down 31% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 11%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Concert Pharmaceuticals better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Concert Pharmaceuticals is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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