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Coronado Global Resources Inc. (ASX:CRN) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 21% in the last month. Despite this, the stock is a strong performer over the last year, no doubt about that. We're very pleased to report the share price shot up 134% in that time. So some might not be surprised to see the price retrace some. Investors should be wondering whether the business itself has the fundamental value required to continue to drive gains.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 8.6%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last year Coronado Global Resources grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.
We think the growth looks very prospective, so we're not surprised the market liked it too. Generally speaking the profitability inflection point is a great time to research a company closely, lest you miss an opportunity to profit.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Coronado Global Resources has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Coronado Global Resources the TSR over the last 1 year was 170%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Pleasingly, Coronado Global Resources' total shareholder return last year was 170%. And yes, that does include the dividend. This recent result is much better than the 4% drop suffered by shareholders each year (on average) over the last three. The optimist would say this is evidence that the stock has bottomed, and better days lie ahead. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Coronado Global Resources (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.