Corteva, Inc.'s (NYSE:CTVA) Has Been On A Rise But Financial Prospects Look Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?
Corteva's (NYSE:CTVA) stock is up by a considerable 15% over the past three months. However, we decided to pay close attention to its weak financials as we are doubtful that the current momentum will keep up, given the scenario. Specifically, we decided to study Corteva's ROE in this article.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
See our latest analysis for Corteva
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
ROE can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Corteva is:
3.0% = US$756m ÷ US$25b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).
The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.03.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Corteva's Earnings Growth And 3.0% ROE
As you can see, Corteva's ROE looks pretty weak. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 10%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 3.3% seen by Corteva was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.
So, as a next step, we compared Corteva's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 5.5% in the same period.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Corteva's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Is Corteva Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
With a high three-year median payout ratio of 53% (implying that 47% of the profits are retained), most of Corteva's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run.
Only recently, Corteva stated paying a dividend. This likely means that the management might have concluded that its shareholders have a strong preference for dividends. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 27% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 7.1%, over the same period.
Summary
Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Corteva. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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