The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is the natural gas exchange traded fund that commands the most attention, but the equity-based First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG) also merits near-term consideration.
The $475.6 million FCG is over is six and a half years old and has traded lower by 3.2% over the past month. FCG’s decline over that period is curious when considering UNG has jumped 18% during the past 30 days. [Nat Gas Rally: Hot Air or the Real Thing?]
A look at a longer-term monthly chart for FCG actually shows some encouraging technical signs. Combine that with the ETF’s recent basing action, and it could be time for the ETF to make another run at its 52-week high around $20.62. That level needs to be conquered again before the $22-$23 area, a price range FCG has not seen in two and a half years, can be discussed.
“On a shorter-term daily chart, we can see the basing action over the past few months. Currently, FCG is attempting to hold support of the prior swing low in a ‘double bottom’ type formation,” writes Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group.
Although FCG is trading below its 50-day moving average, the ETF has been basing for two months and has not fallen below the important $18.50 area.
“Usually when a stock or ETF is ready to move higher from a base, the 20-day exponential moving average is above the 50-day moving average, with both averages pointing higher. In this case, the chart pattern has a bit more work to do because the 20-day EMA is currently trading below the 50-day MA,” said Wagner.
FCG, although it is rarely mentioned, meets the qualifications of a “smart beta” ETF because its 28 holdings are ranked based on price/earnings ratio, price/book ratio, return on equity and the correlation to natural gas futures prices.
First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund