In Jim Cramer's experience, he has seen that market pain will often breed negativity. And when there is too much pain, there is too much negativity. But sometimes, that negativity will create a market that is the opposite of what is expected.
"I know, I felt that gloom. It was palpable. All last week as retailer after retailer disappointed, and the oil and technology stocks were pounded mercilessly, I was blown away by how genuinely weak the market had become," the "Mad Money" host said.
It seemed last Friday that there was bad news everywhere Cramer looked. Thursday kicked it off with a horrendous earnings report from Nordstrom (JWN), which, combined with Macy's (NYSE:M) ugly numbers earlier in the week, made Cramer conclude that people have stopped shopping.
Then the earnings report from Cisco (CSCO) was announced, which actually looked solid. The problem was the outlook, which was fairly downbeat thanks to slowing demand in the global economy.
The brutal blow came with a stream of commentary calling for the Fed to tighten, combined with an obviously softening economy. It left Cramer feeling less than sanguine.
All of this horrible news came on the back of yet another beating of the oil futures, which has now turned into awful news for the economy. It has become obvious to Cramer that the money being saved at the gas pump isn't doing anything.
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"At the same time, the decline in oil is taking away one of the great growth stories of the era. So it is a double whammy of bearishness," Cramer said.
Things got worse when the news broke of the horrendous tragedy in Paris.
But sometimes when the market gets too negative, the scenario you most dread doesn't come true. Suddenly, on Monday, the market flew into an emotional wave of buying from investors who regard a sell-off as giving in to terrorists.
So, while stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, Cramer found that the recent sessions served as a lesson that sometimes the market will do the opposite of what is expected. If there is too much strength in the economy, then whatever slowdown thesis existed that day will become history. If oil is too weak, then the stock market will go lower.
"Those two factors, Fed worries and lower oil prices, are riptides that cannot be navigated no matter what good news we may be getting, especially when most of the good news relates to robust consumer spending, something the Fed no doubt feels it must react to with a December rate hike," Cramer said.
So, when there is too much bad news, it can produce a rally. Too much good news can cause the rally to pause. It is the exact opposite than what most expect, which is why 2015 has proven to be such a difficult year for so many to make a profit.
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