While many investors are banking on the Fed or strength of the U.S. economy to drive the next bullish phase of the stock market, Jim Cramer is not. In fact, he says that much of the strength in the market lately is coming from China .
Could it be possible that the Chinese government's actions are rebooting its economy?
Cramer saw various signals of hope that it could be revived. First, Morgan Stanley went positive on two of the biggest companies in the mining sector, BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP-AU) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO-AU). This was astounding to Cramer, as Morgan Stanley has disliked the mining sector for ages. Now two stocks that are total bellwethers of Chinese constructions roared.
Then Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), which had fallen 44 percent for the year because of its heavy exposure to copper and the Chinese economy, suddenly showed signs of life. The stock shot up more than 9 percent on Wednesday, not only because Carl Icahn won board seats but because copper has finally gone on a winning streak.
Similarly, Joy Global (NYSE: JOY), which was down more than 63 percent for the year, jumped to $17 from $13 a share in just a few days. Joy Global makes mining equipment that China uses to extract coal and showed signs of hope for the People's Republic on Wednesday.
Cramer even found that Chinese growth could be what was behind the recent rally in oil, which ran out of steam on Wednesday when U.S. inventories showed a glut.
However, before Wednesday, oil had become the commodity to own. After all, any increase in the price of oil is perceived as being bullish by the stock market. It has the ability to impact the entire energy complex, especially because the oil companies have so much debt and these companies need the financing.
"The rallies we have seen in all of these stocks stem directly from a sense that, this time, the Chinese really mean business. And while they may have screwed up trying to build wealth overnight by encouraging a reckless stock market, they could be on the verge of igniting their real economy in some lasting way," Cramer said.
But what happens if the Shanghai stock market opens for business, and it gets hammered?
The Chinese government has been propping up its stock market with money raised from billions of dollars in bond sales, including U.S. treasuries. However, Cramer thinks that cannot last much longer.
Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer
After all, what else could explain the stunning decline in Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) earnings? Cramer shared his perspective on the other side of the trade. At the moment, this market hates growth. Whether it is the high-growth semiconductor stocks or the health-care stocks, Wall Street abhors them.
So, if China falters, Cramer expects to see a rotation out of the mineral, mining, oil and heavy industry stocks and right back into the high-growth names.
"China holds the key to figuring out where the next bull phase is coming and where the next bear phase might be. It's not the Fed, it's not the U.S. economy — it's China," Cramer said. (Tweet this)
Yes, that could mean setting your alarm clock for 3 a.m. each morning to see how China is doing to plot your next move. Whatever that move will be Cramer is certain it will have nothing to do with events in the U.S.
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