Jim Cramer couldn't help but notice how quickly investors wrote off 2016 after about nine hours of trading. But the market proved on Tuesday that sometimes the facts refuse to align with a negative story.
"At one point today. when the indices broke down, I heard a collective sigh and was pretty shocked that I didn't get hit by a white flag of surrender as I walked down Wall Street after the morning show," the "Mad Money" host said.
Tuesday morning brought a session of hideous selling, which quickly turned into a terrific rebound of the averages. Cramer said the negativity in the market stems from four directions:
First, China is falling apart. Many investors cannot handle the stress of what happened on Monday.
Second, the Fed has gone from friend to foe. There are rate hikes coming this year, which means the earnings of international industrials are headed for earnings shortfalls if there is no pickup in global demand.
The third fear is that economic cycles are peaking. There was a peak in cellphones, which caused Apple (AAPL) to plummet and take down semiconductor companies with it. The auto industry also appears to be peaking, which is one of the chief engines to U.S. growth.
The fourth trouble is the oil supply. The glut has become so bad that unless Saudi Arabia 's oil infrastructure is taken down, there simply will be no spike in oil prices. Stocks are not likely to spike if oil cannot rally.
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"So, what ended up happening? How about a breath of rationality and a departure, no matter how momentarily, from crazy town?" Cramer said.
Cramer has referred to a crazy-town market as one that has stocks linked to the price of oil. If oil goes up, so do stocks and vice versa. But in the real world lower oil prices are additive to the earnings of many industries, such as the airlines.
In fact, the oil stocks themselves rallied on Tuesday. That was the first time in ages that Cramer could recall that oil stocks diverted from the price of crude.
Another good thing that happened on Tuesday was that it got really cold out. The decline in retail stocks in the fourth quarter of 2015 has been one of the biggest dampers on the stock market, as many companies were feeling the pain of not moving winter merchandise due to the warm weather. So, the cold weather was a welcome gift to retail stocks, especially Macy's (NYSE:M).
Even household names such as McDonald's (MCD), which Cramer thinks will be a powerhouse in 2016, along with Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Clorox (CLX) and PepsiCo (PEP) were able to rally off of a whiff of a Fed-induced recession.
"I like a market where the facts can and do get in the way of a negative story," Cramer said. (Tweet This)
So, it seems that stocks are finally out of crazy town. Opportunity knocked when the averages were down on Tuesday morning, and the day ended with a victory for the bulls — the way it should have ended.
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