Crocs’ Streak Continues, Lululemon Warns on Omnicron + Other Top Footwear Forecasts Ahead of ICR

Shoshy Ciment
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Major footwear brands are announcing updated sales and earnings expectations ahead of their virtual presentations at the 24th annual ICR conference, which begins today and runs through Wednesday.

Crocs, Caleres, Genesco, Boot Barn, and Lululemon have all pre-announced expectations for Q4 and the full year. In some cases, these brands are posting better than expected results, despite supply chain slowdowns and impacts from the Omicron variant.

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For example, Crocs said it expects to hit record 2021 revenues, marking about 67% growth compared to 2020. The company expects Q4 revenues to grow about 42% and a Q4 non-GAAP operating margin of about 28%. For 2022, Crocs expects to see revenue grow more than 20% compared to 2021, which falls in line with the company’s broader plan to achieve $5 billion in sales by 2026.

Crocs expects its recently acquired Hey Dude brand to see between $700 and $750 million in fiscal year 2022, in line with its goal to make it a $1 billion brand by 2024.

“We remain incredibly confident in the Crocs brand and continue to expect to achieve $5 billion in revenues by 2026, even before any Hey Dude revenues,” said Crocs CEO Andrew Rees.

Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser said he is confident that Crocs will apply its own success to the Hey Dude brand, which has the potential to reach a wider market. Stifel analyst Jim Duffy was more hesitant and noted that Crocs’ growth is concentrated in North America via its classic clog, making the stock riskier more subject to fashion changes.

Boot Barn, Caleres, and Genesco also announced positive preliminary results for its upcoming quarters. Boot Barn expects net sales to increase 71.1% to about $485.9 million for Q3. Caleres, which owns Sam Edelman, Famous Footwear and more brands, expects record adjusted earnings per share between $4.00 and $4.10 as opposed to its previously announced expectation of between $3.80 and $3.90 for fiscal year 2021.

And Genesco, which owns Journeys and Johnston & Murphy, expects to land in the middle of its full year earnings per share guidance of between $6.40 and $6.90.

“We are pleased with our performance this holiday selling season, especially given the supply chain challenges, as strong full-priced selling drove better than expected sales and profitability,” said Genesco board chair, president and CEO Mimi E. Vaughn.

On the other hand, Lululemon said on Monday that it expects net revenue to be on the lower end of its range of $2.125 billion to $2.165 billion for Q4 of fiscal year 2021. The company also expects diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be on the low end of its ranges of $3.24 to $3.31 and $3.25 to $3.32.

Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald said that limiting staffing, reduced hours, and capacity constraints from Omicron effects impacted results for the company. Shares of Lululemon fell over 4.5% on Monday following the announcement.

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