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Can Crude Oil Barrel Through Its Resistance?

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Did extreme volatility in reaction to FOMC and Ben Bernanke shake loose some patterns or complete their trending? Wednesday night's extremes might be retested soon, but exceeding them might take quite some time.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's night's plunge to 82.60 nevertheless recovered to range around 83.33 Thursday. Extending down without a corrective bounce first would be difficult.

[More from Minyanville.com: Why Gold's Last Two Sessions Undermine Its Recovery ]

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
An overnight surge to 1.3210 was pushed back down to consolidate Thursday at 1.3020 support. Recovering 1.3020 would have signaled the decline had ended, but retracing the excessive overnight rally back down to 1.3020 makes that unclear. A rally effort Friday would be suspicious.

[More from Minyanville.com: US Dollar Index Trying to Break Out on the Upside Again ]

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Now we know why, despite Wednesday repeatedly failing to extend any one of its probes above Tuesday's highs, negative territory was never probed. Optimism remained very much alive and well, reacting up sharply overnight on Bernanke. The fourth consecutive session of ranging flat-to-lower from a gap up still undermines the gap's cumulative gains. Back under 1271.50 and 1268.00 would signal momentum reversing back down.

[More from Minyanville.com: Gold Flirting With Key Support Level Ahead of FOMC Minutes ]

Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
The reaction to Bernanke only retested last week's test of the 20.00 area Thursday. But if not rejected through Friday's close, there is room for fresh highs up to 20.88.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Thursday's gap up above Tuesday's highs ranged around 134-04 intraday, absorbing the afternoon's 30-year auction. Absent a second consecutive higher confirming close Friday, the gap left outstanding back down to Wednesday's 132-28 close will need to be filled, probably on the way down to fresh lows.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (USO)
Probing higher overnight to 107.45 didn't change the likelihood for testing the 106.35 target to produce a pullback targeting 103.30 "lower prior highs," which has so far been retraced down to 104.31.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG, UNL)
EIA prevented a recovery attempt back above 3.70 that was instead reversed back down to 3.55-3.60 support. Closing back above 3.73 would still trigger a rally leg.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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