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Crude Oil Demand; Gold Longs cut Again

Ole Hansen

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across 24 major commodity futures up until last Tuesday, June 9. Appetite for risk remained high that week, not least following the better-than-expected US job report on June 5. The S&P 500 rallied 4.2%, the dollar index lost 1.4% while bond yields jumped. The Bloomberg Commodity Index climbed 1.5% with gains seen across all sectors with the exception of precious metals.

A mixed week in commodities which despite broad price gains did not yield much in terms of major position changes. Crude oil continued to be bought albeit at a much reduced pace, fuel products were sold on rising overhang of stocks while natural gas held steady. Precious metals remained out of favor with the gold and silver longs dropping further while enthusiasm for copper attracted strong buying. Grains, led by corn, continued to be sold while the sugar position flipped back to long. Thereby becoming vulnerable to profit taking after the rally’s main engine, crude oil, began looking exhausted.

Energy

Buying of crude oil slowed despite another week of strong gains for both WTI and Brent crude oil. WTI saw the smallest amount of buying in this cycle with bullish bets close to a two-year high. Elevated levels of fuel products in the U.S. drove a reduction in the gasoline (RBOB) net-long to a three-year low and a rise in the distillate (ULSD) short to a three-month high.

Metals

Gold selling extended into a third week with the net long falling by 9k lots to 127k lots, a one-year low and down 55% since the February peak. Copper meanwhile and as expected attracted additional buying following the technical break above $2.50/lb, a key level of support-turned-resistance since 2017. The near five-fold jump took the net-long to 14k lots, a 15-month high.

Agriculture

Ahead of Thursday’s global supply and demand outlook report from the US Department of Agriculture, the corn short had extended to 297k lots, a 13-month high and biggest seasonal short in at least 20 years. This despite a continued steady recovery in the price. The wheat short jumped by 88% ahead of the WASDE report which pinned global stocks next year at a record high. The soybeans long meanwhile more than doubled on increased Chinese buying.

The soft sector was mixed with the oil-related rally in sugar helped flip the position back to a net long while the Arabica coffee short more than doubled in response the deteriorating technical outlook.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by COT, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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