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Crude Oil Price Update – Demand Driven Weakness Ahead of API Inventories Report

James Hyerczyk

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower on Tuesday shortly before the release of the weekly inventories report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Prices have been pressured all session after President made comments about U.S.-China trade relations that rattled traders, renewing concerns over demand growth about a week after traders were focusing on a potential short-term supply shortage.

At 20:05 GMT, November WTI crude oil futures are trading $57.03, down $1.61 or -2.76%.

Daily November WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $53.93. A move through $63.89 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. A trade through $59.49 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is $50.48 to $63.89. Its retracement zone at $57.19 to $55.60 is currently being tested. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this area.

The short-term range is $53.93 to $63.89. Its retracement zone at $57.73 to $58.91 is potential resistance.

The long-term 50% level at $59.29 is additional resistance.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $57.03, the direction of the November WTI crude oil futures contract into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .57.19.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $57.19 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the uptrending Gann angle at $55.93, followed by the main Fibonacci level at $55.60.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $57.19 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with potential resistance targets coming in at $57.73, $57.84 and $57.93. This is followed by $58.73, $58.91 and $59.29. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.


Look for volatility with the release of the API Inventories report at 20:30 GMT. Traders are looking for a drawdown of 500,000 to 800,000 barrels for the week-ended September 20.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire