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Crude Oil Price Update – Strengthens Over $55.72, Weakens Under $53.95

James Hyerczyk

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures finished higher on Friday, but well off their lows. The market spiked early in the session as tensions eased over a U.S. recession following Thursday’s stronger than expected retail sales report. Traders were also optimistic that central banks would provide enough stimulus to prevent a global economic slowdown.

On Friday, October WTI crude oil settled at $54.81, up $0.39 or +0.72%.

Gains were capped and prices retreated throughout the session after OPEC provided a downbeat oil-market outlook for the rest of 2019 as economic growth slows and highlighted challenges in 2020 as rivals pump more, supporting the case for continuing the OPEC-led production cuts.

Daily October WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $57.40 will change the main trend to up. A move through $50.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $57.40 will change the minor trend to up. Taking out $53.77 will signal a resumption of the minor downtrend after several days of sideways-to-higher price action.

The main range is $60.93 to $50.50. Its retracement zone at $55.72 to $56.95 is resistance.

The minor range is $50.50 to $57.40. Its retracement zone at $53.95 to $53.14 is support. This zone stopped the selling at $53.77 on August 15.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

On Friday, October WTI crude oil settled between a pair of 50% levels at $53.95 and $55.72. Since the trend is down, we’ll look at it from the short-side perspective. Based on the close at $54.81, the direction of the market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at $55.72.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $55.72 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the short-term 50% level at $53.95, followed closely by the minor bottom at $53.77. Taking out this level could drive the market into the Fibonacci level at $53.14.

The daily chart is wide open to the downside under $53.14 so this could be the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the main bottom at $50.50.

Bullish Scenario

Holding $53.95 will be the first sign of buyers, but taking out $55.72 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main Fibonacci level at $56.95, followed closely by the main top at $57.40. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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