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Crude Oil Prices - Weekly Outlook: June 11 - 15

Oil prices suffer third weekly drop in a row

Investing.com - Fresh comments from global oil producers for additional signals on whether they plan to exit their current production-cut agreement will remain at the forefront of the oil market in the week ahead.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to meet at its headquarters in Vienna, together with non-OPEC member Russia, on June 22 to discuss production policy.

Oil prices have been on the backfoot recently on concerns that OPEC and non-OPEC members led by Russia would decide to lift output by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) as early as this month in reaction to lost supplies out of Venezuela and Iran.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers have been curbing output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to prop up oil prices and reduce high global oil stocks. The pact began in January 2017 and is set to expire at the end of 2018.

However, Saudi Arabia and Russia have said cuts could be eased after receiving calls from consumers including the United States, China and India to support global demand.

Meanwhile, oil traders will also continue to weigh a steady increase in U.S. production levels in the coming week as the rise in domestic drilling has been underscoring worries about rising U.S. output.

U.S. drillers added one oil rig last week, bringing the total count to 862, the highest number since March 2015, General Electric (NYSE:GE)'s Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.

Domestic oil production - driven by shale extraction - is currently at an all-time high of 10.8 million bpd. Only Russia currently produces more, at around 11 million bpd.

Fresh weekly data on U.S. commercial crude inventories on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer and how fast output levels will continue to rise will capture the market's attention.

Crude oil futures finished slightly lower on Friday and registered a marginal decline for the week.

U.S. benchmark oil, West Texas Intermediate WTI crude lost 21 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $65.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with the commodity logging a weekly loss of 0.1%. That marked the third weekly decline in a row.

Elsewhere, Brent crude, the global benchmark, shed 86 cents, or 1.1%, to end at $76.46 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, finishing down 0.4% for the week. Brent has posted weekly drops in two of the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, Brent's premium over WTI futures remained near three-year highs above $11 a barrel. The premium has doubled in less than a month, as surging U.S. production and a lack of pipeline capacity has trapped a lot of output inland.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the main events likely to affect the oil market.

Tuesday, June 12

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.

The American Petroleum Institute is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, June 13

The International Energy Agency will release its monthly report on global oil supply and demand.

Later in the day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on oil stockpiles.

Friday, June 15

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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