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Crude Oil Thoroughly Tested Its Target on Wednesday -- And Held

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Crude oil met its target Thursday. Was it just in time to join gold in its recovery leg, or will it attract buyers away from gold?

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Thursday's gap down extended lower through the morning to test 80.90, threatening critical support at 80.65.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
Wednesday's retest of last week's high was extended aggressively Thursday, first by gapping up and then by trending higher to test 1.3400 through the morning. Unless rejected immediately Friday by gapping down back under 1.333, or at least by reversing down aggressively from a higher intraday high, the next higher objective of 1.3580 is in-play.

Oct Contract GC; (GLD)
Wednesday's recovery from gapping down to fresh lows was just bullish enough to fulfill the pattern's timing requirement. But a strong uptrending session could not be further delayed, and Thursday's $30 rally qualified. A close above 1312.50 would confirm a new upleg is underway. Meanwhile, pullbacks must hold 1296.50.

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Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Thursday's gap up from its recent basing probed through 20.00 resistance. Peaking at the recent 20.26 high reflects just enough healthy pessimism to that makes filling the outstanding gap at 20.50 likely, if not also trending another $1 through it to 21.50.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Fresh highs Thursday did not gain any new traction, but a close back under 133-10 is still needed to signal fresh lows in-play down to 131-06.

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Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (USO)
The 103.55 target at last Wednesday's opening gap down was met Thursday, along with probing under last Wednesday's low. Closing back at or above 103.55 suggests that selling pressure had peaked, but a close above 104.25 is needed to begin signaling that momentum is reversing up.

Natural Gas
Sep Contract CL; (UNG), (UNL)
A negative knee-jerk reaction to Thursday's EIA report found no sellers to extend down any further, since the extended downdraft had already expended so much selling pressure. It's not a bottom, but does allow a reversal pattern to be credible.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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