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Crude Oil's Surge Confirms a Rally Underway

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Crude oil's surge is confirming its rally has begun playing out, while natural gas probed fresh lows to fulfill the downleg's objective.
Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Thursday's probe above the rally's 83.35 target did not extend. An immediate reversal down would be credible for gaining traction. Extending the rally would require two consecutive higher closes.

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Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
The decline's 1.2955-1.3020 target continued to hold Thursday. Its reaction up was too ineffectual not to expect more basing before any rally could be credible.

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Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
A bounce held 1237.00 resistance before extending to new lows under 1200.00 Thursday afternoon. If not absorbed without further delay, the next lower objective of 1190.00 would be in-play.

Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Another bounce to 18.88 resistance was rejected Thursday by a drop back to the 18.35 low. Closing back above 19.00 would now suffice to signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Thursday's probe back above 135-00 resistance had better luck than Wednesday, extending to fresh relative highs at 136-00. But the probe was relatively subdued, undermining its ability to avoid another downdraft.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (USO)
Wednesday's brief dip to 93.70 had required extending up almost immediately Thursday to avoid a more bearish turn. The surge through 96.00 to 97.40, suggests the gap back to 98.45-99.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG, UNL)
Thursday's new low fully tested the outstanding 3.55-3.62 objective, which is capable of ending the decline. Closing back above 3.70 would trigger at least a steep short-squeeze.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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