With its stock down 9.7% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard CSL (ASX:CSL). However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. Specifically, we decided to study CSL's ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for CSL is:
13% = US$2.2b ÷ US$18b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.13 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
A Side By Side comparison of CSL's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE
To begin with, CSL seems to have a respectable ROE. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 8.7% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. Despite this, CSL's five year net income growth was quite low averaging at only 4.7%. That's a bit unexpected from a company which has such a high rate of return. A few likely reasons why this could happen is that the company could have a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that CSL's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 15% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is CSL fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.
Is CSL Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 44% (or a retention ratio of 56% over the past three years, CSL has seen very little growth in earnings as we saw above. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.
Moreover, CSL has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 43% of its profits over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for CSL is predicted to rise to 19% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.
Overall, we feel that CSL certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.