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Daily Observations: July 30, 2013

Christopher Vecchio

Current Positions:

- Short AUDUSD at net 0.9192 (1/2 0.9164, 1/2 0.9220), Stop at 0.9170, Target 1 at 0.9045, Target 2 at 0.8960

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

I remain short the AUDUSD but in light of today's sharp swing lower I've moved my Stop from 0.9350 to 0.9170, thereby eliminating the risk of a -158-pip loss; at minimum it will be a +22-pip gain. Accordingly, when Target 1 at 0.9045 is hit, no change to the Stop will be made.

Should price approach 0.8960 before the Fed meeting tomorrow, my plan is to take 1/2 profit and look to sell a rebound into 0.9130; with US NFPs on Friday, another print near +200K should help support the buck.

I remain bearish on the Aussie, which I noted last week was carrying a 72% chance of a rate cut at the RBA's next meeting; after today, that figure has jumped to 92% and is a prime reason for rampant weakness.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 06:00 EDT / 10:00 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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