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Daily Observations: October 1, 2012

Christopher Vecchio

Current Positions:

- Long AUDUSD from net 1.0422 (1.0525, 1.0455, 1.0421, 1.0435, 1.0390), Stop at daily close <1.0395, Target 1 at 1.0615, Target 2 at 1.0670, Target 3 at 1.0800

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- AUDUSD: Further declines today although a sharp rebound off of last week’s low as resulted in the beginning stages of a Hammer on the daily chart. Intraday resistance came at topside resistance in the Falling Wedge – a reversal pattern – first noted last week. Although the pattern was initiated, it may have been a false breakout; we will have resolution in the next few days. Resistance comes in at 1.0370 (Falling Wedge breakout level), 1.0405/25 (20-EMA, mid-August swing lows), 1.0470/85 (former intraday swing levels). Support comes in at 1.0325/45 (last week’ and daily lows, 200-DMA), 1.0305/15 (ascending trendline off of June 1 and September 6 lows), and 1.0270/80 (former intraday swing levels). Bias: bullish above 1.0250/70.

- EURUSD: On a second test, the pair has found support near the 200-DMA, which remains the first major level of downside support. If this level holds, we look towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement (February 2012 high to the July 2012 low) at 1.2934 again, though a subsequent rejection would signal a third test of the mid- to low-1.2800s again. Interim support comes in at 1.2820/55 (20-EMA, 200-DMA, late-April swing high). Resistance lies at 1.2895 (5-EMA), 1.2930/35, 1.3000, 1.3145, and 1.3165/75 (September high). Bias: bullish above 1.2935.

- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD fell into major support earlier today, at 1.6100/20 (20-EMA, descending trendline off of April 2011 and August 2011 highs). Support comes in at 1.6050/65 (ascending trendline off of August 2 and August 31 lows), 1.5970/75 (former channel resistance off of June 20 and August 23 highs), and 1.5770/85 (late-August swing lows. Resistance comes in at the former April swing highs at 1.6260 (by close) and 1.6300 (by high), as long as 1.6100/20 holds this week. Bias: bullish above 1.6140.

- USDJPY: With price holding above 77.65/70 by close on Friday, scope for gains into 77.90 and 78.10/20 are well-within reason. A daily close above 77.90 level eyes resistance at 78.10/20, 78.60, 78.85/90 (100-DMA, descending trendline off of the April 20 and June 25 highs), and 79.20/30 (200-DMA, September high). Should price close at or below 77.90, support comes in at 77.65/70 (June 1 low) 77.45/50, and 77.10/15 (September low). Bias: bearish.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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