Data Deluge
Today marks the last day of the holiday-shortened trading week, as well as the last trading day on the month and last day of the quarter. Futures are up thus far in the pre-market, but are relatively tepid at this hour; should this remain throughout the day, we will see the Dow Jones index close lower for the first quarter in the last ten.
Initial Jobless Claims Sink Even Lower
But you can’t say weekly jobless claims data isn’t pulling its weight: 215K jobless claims a week ago actually falls 10,000 below our long-term range of 225-250K, which had been consistent with a robust U.S. labor market. (We had peaked a tad above this range back when hurricane season was ravaging the southern part of the country late last summer.) At 215K, we are nearing all-time lows we haven’t seen since the first few years of jobless claims data was recorded, back in the 1960s. This 215K has a real “White Album” feel to it.
Last week’s total in new jobless claims ratcheted down 2,000 in the previous week’s revision to 227K, also historically very low. Continuing claims was up somewhat from the previous week, but at a still very healthy 1.87 million. A week from tomorrow, we will see new non-farm employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which brought in a stellar 313K new jobs in the month of February; for March, analysts expect another 200K or so new jobs.
Personal Income & Spending In-Line
Also ahead of today’s market open, new data on Personal Income & Spending is out, reporting +0.4% for income and +0.2% for spending — both in-line with analyst estimates. Wages numbers were also up, +0.5%, a key indicator for inflation asserting itself in today’s economy (or February’s, anyway). The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index for February registered at +1.8%, with core PCE for the month at +0.2%.
These figures continue to point in the “right” direction for an increasingly tightening job market, but at rates that are not expected to raise anyone’s hackles regarding spiking inflation causing extra interest rate hikes from the Fed. We continue to exist in a “Goldilocks” economy, even if stock market sentiment isn’t really seeing it like that currently.
Constellation, PVH Beat Estimates
On this last day of calendar Q1, even though the bulk of earnings reports aren’t expected for another couple weeks, two branding-oriented firms did put up their fiscal quarter earnings numbers ahead of today’s opening bell: alcohol distributor Constellation Brands STZ and apparel company PVH Corp. PVH.
Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)-rated Constellation, producers of name brand beverages like Corona and Svedka, posted $1.90 per share versus $1.75 in the Zacks consensus estimate, amounting to 28% growth on the bottom line year over year. Revenues in the quarter of $1.766 billion topped the $1.757 billion expected. The company also upped its dividend 42%, and shares are trading up 3.5% in today’s pre-market. For more on STZ’s earnings, click here.
Provider of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein clothing, PVH Corp., also a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), beat estimates by a dime to $1.58 per share, on quarterly sales of $2,499 million which outperformed the $2,345 million expected. Earnings rose 29% year over year and revenues were up 19% — +23% for Calvin Klein and +22% for Hilfiger. The company also upped guidance for full-year 2018, and shares are up 3.8% thus far in the pre-market. For more info on PVH's earnings, click here.
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