Deciphering key running back DFS values for Yahoo's million dollar contest
By John Evans
Special to Yahoo Sports
Congrats to fantasy gamers who are deep in their playoffs! For many, though, it’s time to make the most of our last few weeks of daily fantasy.
Yahoo has a Week 15 contest that should light a fire in the imagination of any football enthusiast: the NFL Million Dollar Baller.
To take down one of the big prizes you’ll need to hit on your running backs and avoid the landmines that doom the competition. Using the same offensive-line-oriented analysis I’ve employed all season, here are my thoughts on some of the more attractively priced players.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings ($26)
Only four teams have been as pass-happy as the Vikings this year. Over the last month they’ve granted their star running back just 10.25 carries per game. That should change with the firing of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo.
Under Pat Shurmur, the 2017 Vikings never had fewer than 20 rushing attempts in a game, and new OC Kevin Stefanski has been with the team much longer than that. It’s safe to assume Stefanski will share Mike Zimmer’s desire to run the ball more. Minnesota hosts the Miami Dolphins this week, a good team to target. They’re the eighth-easiest matchup for RBs this season and only three teams surrender more rushing yards per game.
[Play in our Week 15 DFS contest: $1M prize pool. $250K in overlay. Join now!]
With Cook’s DFS price just $1 higher than David Johnson and Leonard Fournette — backs who are attached to much weaker offenses — he seems like a good value at $26. However, the Vikings’ offensive line has yet to recover from the passing of their position coach, Tony Sparano, in July. Under Sparano’s leadership the 2017 unit finished 19th in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric. Today, they sit at 31st amongst 32 teams.
With center Pat Elflein and guard Mike Remmers floundering, Vikings backs are finding very little success on bread-and-butter interior runs. Fortunately, the middle of Miami’s d-line is a weak spot. Unfortunately, Latavius Murray is still getting 37% of the carries since Cook’s return from injury in Week 9. He is much more of a straight-ahead pounder than Cook and a much higher percentage of his carries have been runs up the gut.
Even so, Cook’s involvement in the passing game could keep him afloat, as he’s scoring most of his fantasy points via the air. The Fish were victimized by receiving backs James White and Tarik Cohen this year, though White’s output was muted in last week’s rematch, the so-called “Miracle in Miami.”
Given his talent and all the positive factors here, Cook is likely to be highly owned in this contest, as he’s considerably cheaper than Todd Gurley ($39), Ezekiel Elliott ($35) and Saquon Barkley ($33).
While the upside is certainly there, I would rather pay up for Gurley, whose price and poor outing in Chicago should take him out of chalk territory. Or, I’d seek value plays at RB and instead build around Cook’s teammate Adam Thielen ($31), the safest WR on this slate and someone who is also coming off a down week (at least by his standards).
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks ($18)
Cook’s opposite number in Week 14 travels to San Francisco to face a 49ers team that just held Phillip Lindsay to 2.1 yards per tote, though the promising rookie did find the end zone. The week before though, San Francisco allowed the league’s third-weakest rushing attack to roll up 125 total yards and a touchdown in Tampa Bay’s 27-9 win.
Deforest Buckner is a beast in the middle of the Niner line, but promising linebacker Fred Warner seems to have hit the rookie wall. Overall San Francisco is 14th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense metric. They’re not an ideal matchup, but it may be more important who they’re going up against.
The philosophical opposite of Minnesota this season, Seattle runs the ball more than anyone. Chris Carson is the primary beneficiary of that focus on the ground game, as he’s averaged 18 carries since Week 3. The Seahawks’ offensive line has benefitted greatly from the offseason change of Tom Cable’s outside-zone-heavy scheme to Mike Solari’s more straightforward system.
The new o-line coach has seen his charges achieve a 13th overall ranking in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric, despite no real standouts in the starting lineup. Even tackle Duane Brown, whose pass protection has been superb, grades out as an average run blocker. Working well in concert, this group has helped Seattle backs roll up 16.4 more rushing yards per game than the next closest team, at a robust 4.7 yards-per-carry clip — eighth-best in the NFL.
Last time these teams played (two weeks ago), Carson had 108 total yards in a 43-16 Seattle win, their tenth in a row against their division rival. Even when they should probably pass, Seattle will run the rock. We aren’t so worried about Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny siphoning carries from Carson anymore. It won’t be difficult for the heavily used back to provide a nice return on your $18 investment.
Doug Martin, Oakland Raiders ($16)
The aforementioned Tom Cable has taken his controversial blocking scheme to the East Bay, where the Raiders have slipped from 11th in run blocking in 2016 and 2017 to 14th this year, according to Football Outsiders. You may have expected a bigger drop, considering that Oakland has turned over both tackle positions and the offense is 29th in points per game (18.8). But the franchise’s run-blocking is really the least of their worries at this point (figuring out where they’ll play next year is a larger priority, I’d say).
Pivot-man Rodney Hudson is having a tremendous year and Gabe Jackson remains solid, though left guard Kelechi Osemele has seen his play fall off a cliff this season.
Both Jackson and Osemele are in danger of missing Week 15, which would cool my enthusiasm for Doug Martin. Much of his appeal, though, stems from his role and the Raiders’ opponent, anyway.
While Martin has not posted gaudy yardage totals since taking over for Marshawn Lynch in Week 8, he’s been reasonably effective in the bell-cow role and has hit paydirt in three consecutive weeks. The matchup is the motivation to play him here, as the Raiders will pay a visit to a Bengals team that has played more like sleepy pussycats of late.
Over the last four weeks no team has surrendered more fantasy points to running backs. They’ve allowed 4.79 yards per carry. Cincinnati’s front is bottom five in stuffing running plays and standing their ground in short-yardage situations. This season, only two teams have surrendered more rushing touchdowns, and opposing backs are on a 12-game scoring streak.
While it’s seldom a smart bet to count on the Raiders to play well in an early game on the East Coast, this seems like a matchup between the resistible force and the moveable object. It’s easy to pencil in Martin for 60 yards and a touchdown, at worst. He’s an unsexy play that would allow you to pay up for a big QB/WR stack (Big Ben and Juju, perhaps?). Especially if Gabe Jackson is a go — he says “I’m going to be all right” — I would start Martin with confidence.
Whatever your strategy, whoever you play — I wish you luck in this big week for fantasy football!
