Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Wagners Holding Company Limited (ASX:WGN)?
It is hard to get excited after looking at Wagners Holding's (ASX:WGN) recent performance, when its stock has declined 20% over the past three months. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Wagners Holding's ROE today.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
See our latest analysis for Wagners Holding
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Wagners Holding is:
11% = AU$13m ÷ AU$118m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.11.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Wagners Holding's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE
To start with, Wagners Holding's ROE looks acceptable. Even so, when compared with the average industry ROE of 25%, we aren't very excited. Moreover, Wagners Holding's net income shrunk at a rate of 32%over the past five years. Bear in mind, the company does have a high ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. Therefore, the shrinking earnings could be the result of other factors. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.
However, when we compared Wagners Holding's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 3.9% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Wagners Holding's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Is Wagners Holding Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
While the company did payout a portion of its dividend in the past, it currently doesn't pay a dividend. This implies that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business.
Conclusion
On the whole, we do feel that Wagners Holding has some positive attributes. However, while the company does have a decent ROE and a high profit retention, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
