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Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' (NASDAQ:OLLI) recent performance, when its stock has declined 32% over the past three months. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Specifically, we decided to study Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is:

14% = US$177m ÷ US$1.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to October 2021).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.14 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

To start with, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' ROE looks acceptable. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 20%. Still, we can see that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings has seen a remarkable net income growth of 23% over the past five years. We believe that there might be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently. However, not to forget, the company does have a decent ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So this certainly also provides some context to the high earnings growth seen by the company.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 1.7% in the same period, which is great to see.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings doesn't pay any dividend currently which essentially means that it has been reinvesting all of its profits into the business. This definitely contributes to the high earnings growth number that we discussed above.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' performance. Specifically, we like that it has been reinvesting a high portion of its profits at a moderate rate of return, resulting in earnings expansion. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.