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Deere (DE) Hits 52-Week High: What's Driving the Upside?

Zacks Equity Research
·5 min read

Shares of Deere & Company DE scaled a fresh 52-week high of $225.38 during the Sep 18 trading session, before retracting to close at $221.97. Forecast-topping third-quarter fiscal 2020 results, an improved outlook and solid agricultural equipment demand have contributed to this rally.

The company has a market capitalization of $69.5 billion. Deere has an expected long-term earnings per share growth rate of 8.2%. The company has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 36.2%.

Share Price Performance

The stock has gained 34.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s growth of 29.4%.



Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat: Deere reported earnings of $2.57 per share in third-quarter fiscal 2020, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.30. Net sales of equipment operations (which comprise Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry) of $7.86 billion also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.64 billion.

Raised Fiscal 2020 View

Net income for fiscal 2020 is projected at $2.25 billion, up from prior projection of $1.6-$2 billion. Deere expects Agriculture and Turf equipment sales to be down 10% in fiscal 2020. The view slightly improved from the prior forecast of a 10-15% decline. The Construction and Forestry equipment segment’s sales are estimated to be down 25% for the fiscal year. Previously, the company expected the segment sales to plunge 30-40%. Stabilization in the agriculture sector as well as Deere’s efforts to reduce operating costs have helped the company raise its outlook. However, management has stated that uncertainties related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic might affect results.

Driving Factors

The U.S. farm sector seems to be showing early signs of stabilization following the passage of The United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the Phase 1 trade agreement with China, which instilled farmer confidence. Per the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest available projections, net farm income is anticipated to increase 22.7% to $102.7 billion in 2020. This will make farmers resume spending on agricultural equipment, which will drive Deere’s top line.

Per recent Bloomberg report, Deere stated its plans to expand in Australia and New Zealand in precision agriculture as well as in construction and forestry sectors, including road building and government infrastructure projects.This bode well for Deere’s business in the near term.

Recently, Deere completed the acquisition of the Brazilian company, Unimil, a provider of the aftermarket service parts business for sugarcane harvesters. This buyout will help expand the company’s sugarcane business in Brazil and aid customers reduce their production costs for sugarcane.

Deere is assessing the cost structure by reviewing organization efficiency and footprint assessment, which in turn will help improve margins. The company initiated a voluntary separation program during first-quarter fiscal 2020, in sync with its efforts to create a more efficient organization structure and reduce operating costs. These programs will provide an annual run rate savings of around $260 million in fiscal 2020. The company is focused on driving capital-allocation decisions, intensifying investments in precision agriculture, as well as enhancing capabilities in the after-market and retrofit business.

Deere will benefit from focus on launching products with advanced technologies and features, which provides it a competitive edge. Moreover, customers’ growing reliance on advanced technology to run complex operations smoothly will continue to fuel Deere’s revenues. The company expects replacement demand for aged fleet to support firm equipment volumes in the near term. Moreover, its efforts to expand in precision agriculture will be a game changer.

Solid Estimate Revisions

The company’s earnings estimate for fiscal 2020 is pegged at $7.42 per share and has moved 17.6% north over the past 30 days. Nine analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current fiscal, while none has revised estimates downward during the same time frame.

Zacks Rank & Other Stocks to Consider

Deere currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Some other top-ranked stocks in the Industrial Products sector include Astec Industries, Inc. ASTE, Silgan Holdings, Inc. SLGN and SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. SITE. While Astec sports a Zacks Rank #1, Silgan and SiteOne carry a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), currently.

Astec has an estimated earnings growth rate of 13.5% for the ongoing year. The company’s shares have rallied 68.5% in a year’s time.

Silgan has a projected earnings growth rate of 28.7% for 2020. The company’s shares have appreciated 32.9% over the past year.

SiteOne Landscape has an expected earnings growth rate of 15.4% for the current year. The stock has surged 61.6% in the past year.

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