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A New Democratic Poll Is Warning Of Midterm Disaster For Democrats

Brett LoGiurato
Barack Obama


A new poll conducted by a Democratic pollster is warning of potential impending disaster for Democrats in this year's midterm elections because of a familiar problem — diminished turnout among voters on whom they are reliant. 

The Washington Post's Greg Sargent got an early look at the poll, which was conducted by Democratic pollster  Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps for Women’s Voices Women Vote. The poll found that voters in the so-called "Rising American Electorate" — unmarried women, minorities, and younger voters — are much less likely to vote this year than in 2012.

The disparity is key. In the "Rising American Electorate" (RAE), 64 percent of those who voted in 2012 said they are "almost certain" to vote again this year. Among voters in the "non-RAE," that number jumps to 79 percent.

Here's the key chart:

Election poll

Democracy Corps

The number tells Democrats much of what they already know, but the trend line serves as an alarm. In addition, the "RAE" voters who said they are "almost certain" to vote split for Democrats by a 25-point margin. That's actually slimmer than in 2012, when 35 percent more RAE voters cast their ballots for President Barack Obama over Republican nominee Mitt Romney. 

Overall, among the 2012 voters who said they're not certain to vote this time, Democrats hold a 16-point, 49-33 edge. 

To try to close the gap and turn out more voters, Democrats have plotted a strategy geared around motivating their base. On Tuesday — "Equal Pay Day" — Obama will make a couple of moves the White House says will strengthen enforcement of equal-pay laws for women.

Obama will sign an executive order  prohibiting federal contractors from retaliating against employees who choose to discuss their compensation. And he will sign a presidential memorandum compelling federal contractors to submit to the Department of Labor data on employee compensation by race and gender.

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