Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?
So, the natural question for DermTech (NASDAQ:DMTK) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.
How Long Is DermTech's Cash Runway?
A cash runway is defined as the length of time it would take a company to run out of money if it kept spending at its current rate of cash burn. In September 2019, DermTech had US$21m in cash, and was debt-free. Importantly, its cash burn was US$13m over the trailing twelve months. That means it had a cash runway of around 19 months as of September 2019. While that cash runway isn't too concerning, sensible holders would be peering into the distance, and considering what happens if the company runs out of cash. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.
How Well Is DermTech Growing?
DermTech boosted investment sharply in the last year, with cash burn ramping by 81%. That's not ideal, but we're made even more nervous given that operating revenue was flat over the same period. Taken together, we think these growth metrics are a little worrying. In reality, this article only makes a short study of the company's growth data. This graph of historic earnings and revenue shows how DermTech is building its business over time.
How Hard Would It Be For DermTech To Raise More Cash For Growth?
Even though it seems like DermTech is developing its business nicely, we still like to consider how easily it could raise more money to accelerate growth. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.
DermTech has a market capitalisation of US$96m and burnt through US$13m last year, which is 14% of the company's market value. Given that situation, it's fair to say the company wouldn't have much trouble raising more cash for growth, but shareholders would be somewhat diluted.
So, Should We Worry About DermTech's Cash Burn?
Even though its increasing cash burn makes us a little nervous, we are compelled to mention that we thought DermTech's cash burn relative to its market cap was relatively promising. We don't think its cash burn is particularly problematic, but after considering the range of factors in this article, we do think shareholders should be monitoring how it changes over time. While we always like to monitor cash burn for early stage companies, qualitative factors such as the CEO pay can also shed light on the situation. Click here to see free what the DermTech CEO is paid..
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)
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