While Arconic Corporation (NYSE:ARNC) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 13% in the last quarter. But looking back over the last year, the returns have actually been rather pleasing! In that time we've seen the stock easily surpass the market return, with a gain of 37%.
In light of the stock dropping 4.3% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over the last twelve months Arconic went from profitable to unprofitable. While this may prove temporary, we'd consider it a negative, so we would not have expected to see the share price up. We might get a clue to explain the share price move by looking to other metrics.
Revenue was pretty flat year on year, but maybe a closer look at the data can explain the market optimism.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Arconic will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Arconic shareholders have gained 37% over the last year. We regret to report that the share price is down 13% over ninety days. It may simply be that the share price got ahead of itself, although there may have been fundamental developments that are weighing on it. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Arconic you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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