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Did 4% GDP Make You More Bullish?

John Blank

What’s the big Macro news today?

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. economy expanded more than previously forecast in Q2.  The GDP growth was propelled by the biggest gain in business investment in more than two years. Corporate profits climbed by the most in almost four years. That bodes well for the rest of 2014.

GDP, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a +4.2% annualized rate; up from an initial estimate of +4%; and following a Q1 contraction. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a +3.9% gain.

How does the future look?  My answer to that is to consult the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters done in Q3.
Here’s what the latest survey shows:

Quarterly Data Real GDP (%)
Q3-14 3.0
Q4-14 3.1
Q1-15 3.1
Q2-15 3.1
Annual Data Real GDP (%)
2014 2.1
2015 3.1
2016 2.9
2017 2.8

 Source: Philadelphia Fed
My RTI question:  Did 4% GDP Make You More Bullish?

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