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Did Changing Sentiment Drive Ambac Financial Group's (NASDAQ:AMBC) Share Price Down By 45%?

Simply Wall St

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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMBC), since the last five years saw the share price fall 45%. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 26%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 23% in the last three months.

Check out our latest analysis for Ambac Financial Group

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

In the last half decade Ambac Financial Group saw its share price fall as its EPS declined below zero. At present it's hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NasdaqGS:AMBC Past and Future Earnings, June 14th 2019

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free interactive report on Ambac Financial Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Ambac Financial Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 26%, against a market gain of about 3.2%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.