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Did Changing Sentiment Drive Astorius Resources's (CVE:ASQ) Share Price Down A Painful 79%?

Simply Wall St

Some stocks are best avoided. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. For example, we sympathize with anyone who was caught holding Astorius Resources Ltd. (CVE:ASQ) during the five years that saw its share price drop a whopping 79%. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 44% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 29% in the last three months.

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Check out our latest analysis for Astorius Resources

Astorius Resources hasn't yet reported any revenue yet, so it's as much a business idea as an actual business. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. For example, investors may be hoping that Astorius Resources finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Some Astorius Resources investors have already had a taste of the bitterness stocks like this can leave in the mouth.

Astorius Resources had liabilities exceeding cash by CA$252,681 when it last reported in December 2018, according to our data. That makes it extremely high risk, in our view. But with the share price diving 27% per year, over 5 years, it's probably fair to say that some shareholders no longer believe the company will succeed. You can see in the image below, how Astorius Resources's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

TSXV:ASQ Historical Debt, May 24th 2019

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Astorius Resources had a tough year, with a total loss of 44%, against a market gain of about 1.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 27% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before spending more time on Astorius Resources it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

We will like Astorius Resources better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.