U.S. Markets open in 7 hrs 59 mins

Did Changing Sentiment Drive Avenira's (ASX:AEV) Share Price Down A Disastrous 97%?

Simply Wall St

Avenira Limited (ASX:AEV) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 97%. So it sure is nice to see a big of an improvement. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.

While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

View our latest analysis for Avenira

With just AU$101,512 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Avenira to have proven its business plan. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. For example, investors may be hoping that Avenira finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. Avenira has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.

Our data indicates that Avenira had AU$12,550,671 more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported in December 2018. That makes it extremely high risk, in our view. But since the share price has dived -68% per year, over 3 years, it looks like some investors think it's time to abandon ship, so to speak. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Avenira's cash levels have changed over time. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Avenira's cash levels have changed over time.

ASX:AEV Historical Debt, September 12th 2019

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Avenira had a tough year, with a total loss of 63%, against a market gain of about 12%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 39% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. You could get a better understanding of Avenira's growth by checking out this more detailed historical graph of earnings, revenue and cash flow.

But note: Avenira may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.