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Did Changing Sentiment Drive Axolot Solutions Holding's (STO:AXOLOT) Share Price Down A Worrying 55%?

Simply Wall St

The nature of investing is that you win some, and you lose some. And unfortunately for Axolot Solutions Holding AB (publ) (STO:AXOLOT) shareholders, the stock is a lot lower today than it was a year ago. The share price has slid 55% in that time. Because Axolot Solutions Holding hasn't been listed for many years, the market is still learning about how the business performs. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 31% in the last 90 days.

Check out our latest analysis for Axolot Solutions Holding

We don't think Axolot Solutions Holding's revenue of kr4,225,000 is enough to establish significant demand. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Axolot Solutions Holding will significantly advance the business plan before too long.

As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. Axolot Solutions Holding has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.

When it reported in September 2019 Axolot Solutions Holding had minimal cash in excess of all liabilities consider its expenditure: just kr24m to be specific. So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. That probably explains why the share price is down 55% in the last year . The image below shows how Axolot Solutions Holding's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image. The image below shows how Axolot Solutions Holding's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.

OM:AXOLOT Historical Debt, January 12th 2020

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? It would bother me, that's for sure. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

While Axolot Solutions Holding shareholders are down 55% for the year, the market itself is up 30%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. The share price decline has continued throughout the most recent three months, down 31%, suggesting an absence of enthusiasm from investors. Basically, most investors should be wary of buying into a poor-performing stock, unless the business itself has clearly improved. Before spending more time on Axolot Solutions Holding it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SE exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.