Everi Holdings Inc. (NYSE:EVRI) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last month. But that isn't much consolation to those who have suffered through the declines of the last year. Like an arid lake in a warming world, shareholder value has evaporated, with the share price down 52% in that time. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. Of course, it could be that the fall was overdone.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Everi Holdings share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 28%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.
Everi Holdings's revenue is actually up 14% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. You can see what analysts are predicting for Everi Holdings in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 2.8% in the last year, Everi Holdings shareholders lost 52%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Everi Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
Everi Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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