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Did Changing Sentiment Drive Evonik Industries' (ETR:EVK) Share Price Down By 40%?

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Simply Wall St
·3 min read
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Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Evonik Industries AG (ETR:EVK) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 40% over a half decade. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 25% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 20% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

Check out our latest analysis for Evonik Industries

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Looking back five years, both Evonik Industries's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 0.4% per year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 9.6% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

XTRA:EVK Past and Future Earnings May 16th 2020
XTRA:EVK Past and Future Earnings May 16th 2020

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Evonik Industries's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Evonik Industries, it has a TSR of -29% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Evonik Industries shareholders are down 19% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 9.8%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6.6% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Evonik Industries better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Evonik Industries you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on DE exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.