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Did Changing Sentiment Drive Frontier Resources' (ASX:FNT) Share Price Down A Painful 78%?

Simply Wall St

Frontier Resources Limited (ASX:FNT) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 29% in the last month. But will that heal all the wounds inflicted over 5 years of declines? Unlikely. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 78% in that time. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The million dollar question is whether the company can justify a long term recovery.

Check out our latest analysis for Frontier Resources

We don't think Frontier Resources's revenue of AU$23,951 is enough to establish significant demand. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. For example, investors may be hoping that Frontier Resources finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Frontier Resources has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.

When it last reported its balance sheet in December 2019, Frontier Resources could boast a strong position, with cash in excess of all liabilities of AU$4.2m. This gives management the flexibility to drive business growth, without worrying too much about cash reserves. But with the share price diving 26% per year, over 5 years , it could be that the price was previously too hyped up. The image below shows how Frontier Resources's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.

ASX:FNT Historical Debt May 10th 2020

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Frontier Resources shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 13% over the last year. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 26% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Frontier Resources (including 2 which is are a bit concerning) .

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.