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Did Changing Sentiment Drive National Security Group's (NASDAQ:NSEC) Share Price Down By 27%?

Simply Wall St

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Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Investors in The National Security Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSEC) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 27%. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 10%. Looking at the longer term, the stock is down 27% over three years. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 3.7%.

See our latest analysis for National Security Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

National Security Group managed to increase earnings per share from a loss to a profit, over the last 12 months. Earnings per share growth rates aren't particularly useful for comparing with the share price, when a company has moved from loss to profit. But we may find different metrics more enlightening.

With a low yield of 1.8% we doubt that the dividend influences the share price much. Revenue was pretty flat on last year, which isn't too bad. However, it is certainly possible the market was expecting an uptick in revenue, and that the share price fall reflects that disappointment.

The chart below shows how revenue and earnings have changed with time, (if you click on the chart you can see the actual values).

NasdaqGM:NSEC Income Statement, May 3rd 2019

Take a more thorough look at National Security Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered National Security Group's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. National Security Group's TSR of was a loss of 26% for the year. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 10% in the last year, National Security Group shareholders lost 26% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3.6% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.